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Honestly, what could happen that would surprise you?
We’ve had two assassination attempts, the end of a sitting president’s political career and a candidate switch. What news alert would raise an eyebrow in the final weeks of this election that would be worth referring to as an October Surprise?
Let’s first understand taxonomy of the genre…
The Policy Surprises
This is where you put consequential decisions from the White House that take place close enough to Election Day that they are still fresh when people go to the polls. LBJ halting bombing in Vietnam, Iranian hostage negotiations in 1980 and the Iranian-Contra indictments of 1992 would fall into this category.
In this election, the betting favorite would be some kind of ceasefire with Hamas and Israel to free the hostages. Or possibly a grand bargain with Saudi Arabia to normalize their relationship with Israel in exchange for a two state framework.
But has the opportunity to look good on that issue passed the White House by? I believe so. A ceasefire at this point would be welcome, but few would breakout the party favors to reward the current administration.
Ditto for Ukraine. Unless Putin was seen as the big loser, which I assume is a nonstarter for any actual solution to that problem.
The Oppo Dump
Think George W. Bush’s forgotten 1976 DUI revealed on November 2nd of that election. This is a piece of information that may not be the biggest deal but juicy enough to stick in the mind of the voter.
But this was a lot more plausible in an analogue world. We live in a political environment where you can’t even post racist screeds to Nude Africa in peace years before you get into politics.
After the Steele Dossier, the Access Hollywood tape and dozens of laps around the Stormy Daniels story is there anything that would change a voter’s mind about Donald Trump?
Kamala would be more vulnerable to something like this, but it would have to be really sharable.
The Act of God
Trump getting COVID in 2020 or Hurricane Sandy hitting in 2012 are good examples. But I’d also throw Osama bin Laden vlogging a warning to America in the waning days of 2004 in there.
This is where Harris might be vulnerable. A violent crime with mass casualties by a recent migrant would put a major weakness in the forefront of voter’s minds. Or if the damage done by Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and Georgia turns into something Katrina ugly.
The Law
James Comey reopening the Hillary Clinton case in 2016 is the most recent version of this. Not much would surprise us when it comes to Trump who has been surrounded by legal drama for two years now. But maybe a connection in the recent bribery scandals surrounding Eric Adams ensnaring a top level staffer from one of the campaigns? Even that would probably be a quick scandal.
Maybe the only real surprise is the logical endpoint of our election maximization culture: we are desensitized to anything but the most extreme events.
But then again, I’m the guy who wrote that Joe Biden would never quit twenty minutes before he did. So what do I know?
James Carville on Swing State solidarity
The Ragin’ Cajun James Carville has a new documentary coming out this week and spoke with Politico’s Ryan Lizza. This stuck out to me because I agree with it:
So I can remember a past you can’t, but we can both remember the politics of the 21st century. And in politics of the 21st century, only in one election, 2008, did we know who was going to win. And you know, I don’t like to make election predictions, but this is one thing. If there are seven swing states, the most unlikely result is that they break four-three.
For all of the map permutations we like to punch up on 270 to Win, the reality of elections is often far more uniform. It is more likely that a candidate wins six or seven of a block of seven swing states then to have it split by Rust Belt and Sun Belt.
This is where some of the most literal polling interpretations can lose the forest for the trees in my mind. Some issues are going to matter more than others when it comes to enthusiasm and eventually voting. If those issues are salient in Michigan, they will probably be exciting in Arizona.
Do you think the blue dog ascendance is an indication that the Overton window has shifted right as a whole?
Maybe. That is what the Harris team is betting on. However, if they don’t win you can be sure that progressives who are currently holding their nose while Kamala talks about shooting people and stopping fentanyl on the border will make it plain that was a mistake.
My gut says they’re right. Liberals like to be excited by liberal ideas. They are less jazzed by rationalizing conservative-friendly plans because “you have to give something to the dumbs.”
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