Here is an interesting back and forth this weekend. How much does vote share (the literal percentage number of a poll like 35%) mean relative to margin (how much one candidate is leading another like +3)?
According to
vote share might be the best indicator on who will win the Rust Belt states. Mostly because while the polls were famously off for Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania… they were very accurate to the Democratic candidate’s vote share.
As you can see in the graphic above, the polling for Hillary had her at 46 to 47%. Biden fared better polling in the 49-50% range.
This is very crucial because Donald Trump is famously a hard-capped 48% candidate. In 2016, he won with Rust Belt vote shares in the 47-48% range. In 2020, he lost with vote shares in the 48% range because Biden was able to get into the low 50s. Trump inability to cross 50% in swing states is the foundation the theory of the case against him.
So where are we now with Kamala Harris?
According to the Real Clear Politics average she is at 48.3% in Wisconsin, 47.6% in Michigan and 48.1% in Pennsylvania. All of these averages have fallen since October.
If we believe the polls for Democratic vote share in the Rust Belt, any and all 47% and below numbers for Harris should be a panic no matter if she’s leading.
But maybe not!
writes that the margin between candidates still matters just as much as vote share which can often be a mirage obsessed over by campaigns who desire to get their horse beyond 50%.We discuss this and much more on the Sunday Sunday Sunday edition of Px3, made exclusively for our paying subscribers.
Also:
JD Vance spars with ABC, Walz comes back to Fox News Sunday
Black Males!
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